Abstract:
Burnup credit accounts for changes in nuclide composition during irradiation and thus reduces the estimated effective multiplication factor (
keff) in criticality-safety assessments of spent nuclear fuel. However, uncertainties arising from sample-to-calculation deviations in nuclide inventories degrade the accuracy of criticality calculations. To quantify those uncertainties across different burnup ranges and to improve the precision of burnup-credit analyses, this work develops a nuclide-bias partitioning strategy based on linear-regression fitting and mean-squared-error minimization to determine optimal burnup interval boundaries for target nuclides. Using an AFA-3G 17×17 PWR fuel assembly as a benchmark, depletion and criticality calculations were carried out on SCALE 6.1 with ORIGEN and KENO modules, and Monte Carlo sampling was employed to propagate nuclide bias uncertainty into
keff. Results indicate that the proposed partitioning strategy reduces criticality uncertainty by approximately 40% under low-burnup conditions, offering an optimized approach for burnup-credit evaluations in spent-fuel criticality safety assessments.