高级检索

燃耗信任制下核素偏差分区策略对临界计算不确定度影响的量化分析

Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of Nuclide-bias Partitioning Strategies on Criticality Calculation Uncertainty Under Burnup Credit

  • 摘要: 燃耗信用制通过考虑燃耗过程中核素成分的变化降低乏燃料临界安全评估中的keff估计值,然而核素成分的样本偏差存在不确定度,会对临界计算结果的准确性造成影响。为在不同燃耗深度下量化该不确定度并提高燃耗信用制分析的准确性,建立了一种基于线性回归拟合与均方误差最小化的核素偏差分区策略,用于确定目标核素的最优燃耗区间划分。以AFA-3G型17×17燃料组件为基准例题,在SCALE 6.1平台上结合ORIGEN和KENO模块,通过蒙特卡罗抽样方法评估了核素偏差对临界计算结果不确定度的传递。结果表明,该策略在低燃耗条件下能够降低约40%的临界计算不确定度,为燃耗信用制下乏燃料临界安全评价提供了优化方案。

     

    Abstract: Burnup credit accounts for changes in nuclide composition during irradiation and thus reduces the estimated effective multiplication factor (keff) in criticality-safety assessments of spent nuclear fuel. However, uncertainties arising from sample-to-calculation deviations in nuclide inventories degrade the accuracy of criticality calculations. To quantify those uncertainties across different burnup ranges and to improve the precision of burnup-credit analyses, this work develops a nuclide-bias partitioning strategy based on linear-regression fitting and mean-squared-error minimization to determine optimal burnup interval boundaries for target nuclides. Using an AFA-3G 17×17 PWR fuel assembly as a benchmark, depletion and criticality calculations were carried out on SCALE 6.1 with ORIGEN and KENO modules, and Monte Carlo sampling was employed to propagate nuclide bias uncertainty into keff. Results indicate that the proposed partitioning strategy reduces criticality uncertainty by approximately 40% under low-burnup conditions, offering an optimized approach for burnup-credit evaluations in spent-fuel criticality safety assessments.

     

/

返回文章
返回